Benjamin Marlin and Han-suk Sohn

This research uses a demand based balance of flow man-power model premised in mathematical programming to provide insight into the potential futures of the Afghan Education System. We will later use this research to inform and help validate a large scale simulation of the same topic. Over the previous three decades, torn from multiple wars and an intolerant governing regime, the education system in Afghanistan has been decimated. Over the past 10 years Afghanistan and the international community have dedicated a substantial amount of resources to educate the Afghan youth. By forecasting student demand we are able to determine points of friction in the teacher production policy regarding grade level, gender, and province across a medium-term time horizon. Future work will entail alternative scenarios including shortened length of teacher training, relaxation of geographic restrictions, and stochastic
analysis of the attrition model.

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